Celtics: What Will They Really Do With Rajon Rondo?

Photo courtesy of ESPN.com

Tuesday was an unexpectedly busy day for the NBA, which garnered several headlines leading into this Saturday’s draft. The Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson and the Timberwolves moved Mike Miller and Randy Foye to Washington for the fifth overall pick, giving them four in the first round this year. But the most intriguing story of Tuesday was about a trade that didn’t happen.

The original report came from Yahoo! that the Celtics had offered the Detroit Pistons Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen for Richard Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince and Rodney Stuckey. The rumor sent buzz for the Celtics skyrocketing, and called for an almost immediate press conference. Of course, the Boston media always feels entitled to an explanation for rumors of this magnitude.

Celtics President and GM Danny Ainge was quick to debunk the notions that the Celtics were trying to deal Rondo, but made it clear that the Celtics love Rondo as much as one would expect:

What’s clear from Ainge’s comments is the speculation that arose from the trade rumor, like the dissatisfaction with Rondo’s character and work ethic (he apparently showed up late to a playoff game against the Magic) or his contract situation, is merely just speculation.

Like any great GM, Ainge would only make such a drastic move as trading two core players if he feels the Celtics will improve as a result of it.

But what’s also clear is that the Celtics are not ruling out the possibility of a major trade in the future. Ainge doesn’t see anything big happening this off-season, but what they will do between now and the 2010-11 season is still up in the air.

Rondo is set to become a free agent after the 2009-10 season, joining perhaps the greatest free agent class in the history of sports. If the Celtics do not extend Rondo’s contract in the next year, his name will be added to the likes of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Dirk Nowitzki, Amare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh, Steve Nash, and yes, Allen as well.

Allen’s contract expires after 2010, making him the most likely player to be moved. The Celtics will remain in control of Kevin Garnett’s contract through 2012 and Paul Pierce through 2011, owing them over $40 million combined during the 2010-11 season. This will make signing Rondo to an extension very difficult for the Celtics, especially if he commands a top-tier salary.

But with the way Rondo has improved over the last two seasons, it’s looking like he’s on his way to a hefty payday. After helping the Celtics win their first championship in 22 years in 2007-08, Rondo took his game to another level in 2008-09. His points, rebounds, assists, and percentages all improved, and he averaged a triple double (16.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists) in 41.2 minutes per game during the playoffs. And he’s still only 23.

Needless to say, Rondo will be seeking a raise over the $2.6 million he’ll make in 2009-10. To reward his movement into the upper echelon of NBA point guards, the Celtics will need to dish out some serious dough. Can they afford it?

If you ask me, keeping Rondo in Boston for his prime years would be worth moving Garnett within the next year. That may mean sacrificing another championship run, but I think it’s still worth it to keep Rondo in a Celtics uniform for the long-term.

It’s pretty clear that Garnett is beginning to decline in terms of both health and performance, which is pretty normal for a man of his age and build.

The window of opportunity for the Celtics’ “Big Three” is closing quickly, and soon enough they will have to look toward the future. That said, it wouldn’t be easy for the Celtics to find a taker for Garnett’s enormous $21 million-plus contract that doesn’t expire until 2012.

But if he can prove to still be able to remain healthy for a full season, it would be tough for a contending team in need of a veteran presence to turn down a man of Garnett’s ability and experience.

But I digress…If- and it’s a pretty big if– the Celtics were open to moving Garnett and could find a deal that works, I would be all for it- provided the main motive is to retain Rondo on the roster.

Rondo doesn’t shoot the ball very well at all; it’s always been his achilles heel. He’ll never be an elite scorer at the point guard position like Chris Paul or Deron Williams.

But he more than makes up for his shooting woes with deft quickness to the hoop, magician-like hands, and tremendous determination and confidence. He has a rare combination of skills that could make him an elite point guard even without great shooting ability.

He may already be there; I personally wouldn’t quite call him elite yet but he’s already at the All-Star level and still has plenty of time to improve. I think all he needs is to develop a reliable three-point shot and he can easily be mentioned among the likes of Paul and Williams.

He can already do everything else with his hands at a very high level. He quickly became my favorite Celtics player and arguably the most exciting player to watch since he came into the league in 2006.

It would pain me as a Celtics fan to see Rondo running all over the place, never tiring or letting up, always looking for the best possible pass or pestering an opponent for a steal, constantly wreaking havoc on the opposing team’s game plan, in a different uniform. It wouldn’t come as a surprise if a team like Cleveland, Houston, Phoenix, or- gasp!– the Lakers were interested in his services come 2010.

Whatever the Celtics do with Rondo, I’m just hoping it doesn’t come devoid of benefits. Trading him would be disappointing, but would also only happen if Ainge feels the Celtics would be better off doing it, and the Celtics would likely end up with some nice players and/or draft picks in return.

Letting Rondo walk to free agency and join another team would be extremely painful to watch, especially if he dons a yellow and purple jersey.

At this point, I would be open to seeing Garnett move elsewhere in order to make room for Rondo to stay here for the future. He’s the most exciting, talented young point guard the Celtics have had in years, and without him for the future the Celtics could be headed straight back to the league basement by 2012.

The Current Boston Celtics: Window Of Opportunity Closing

There will be no Eastern Conference Finals for the Celtics or the City of Boston this year. No Pierce-LeBron showdown sequel. No Lakers rematch. The Celtics instead have an off-season to reflect on an undermanned, inconsistent conclusion to 2008-09, in which the Celtics lost to the Orlando Magic in game seven at The Garden, only the fourth game seven home loss in franchise history. The Magic have now made believers out of their critics, writes Chris Mannix of SI.com.

When general manager Danny Ainge overhauled the roster of the Boston Celtics in the summer of 2007, the team underwent an almost miraculous transformation from league laughingstock to championship contender. At that point, it was realistic to give them a four-year window for championship-level success, because by the fourth year the Celtics may not have their Big Three at all, let alone in their mid-30s and the twilight of their respective careers. Bob Ryan has similar, yet optimistic questions about the Celtics’ future.

Now, two years have passed, and the window is halfway closed. The Celtics had to battle like lions through this postseason without Kevin Garnett, their emotional leader and defensive anchor. They struggled throughout series to figure out different ways to stop their opponents’ offenses.

The Magic ultimately defeated the Celtics with their near-universal prowess from behind the three-point line. Dwight Howard turned out to be something of an x-factor in the series, as the Celtics obviously could not ignore him on defense but ended up giving way to the open man as Orlando drained three after three to send the Celtics’ season swirling around the drain and leave any chance of late-game Paul Pierce heroics nonexistent.

Without invaluable members of the bench that were vital to their championship in 2008- guys like Leon Powe, P.J. Brown and James Posey- the Celtics replaced them with mediocre-at-best role players like Brian Scalabrine and Mikki Moore and underachievers like Stephon Marbury. Eddie House at times had to play way over his head for the Celtics to have a chance to win certain games, something he never had to do last season.

How did coach Doc Rivers feel about the game seven loss and the Celtics’ season? As usual, he made no excuses for his guys, no “We missed KG” posturing, no blame to be placed. He acknowledged that they clearly didn’t play well in game seven, but also that the Magic deserved credit for their win. Above all else, the sweaty, emotionally-drained Rivers made it clear how proud of his guys he was at how hard they fought to repeat their magical playoff run.

But make no mistake, the biggest reason for the Celtics’ defeat by far was the loss of Garnett. His ailing knee never fully recovered, and now Celtics fans are left to wonder if he could have made a magical return had the Celtics advanced beyond the second round of the playoffs. What was a four-year window for the big-three-led Celtics is now two at most, with Garnett looking to already succumb to the injury-riddled decline years of his NBA career.

There’s no doubt that Garnett’s desire and intensity that could make him a coach some day is still there. He still has the fire in his belly that drove his motor, and infected the rest of the Celtics in a way that they rallied around each other and reached the summit as a team, a complete unit. But his body is betraying him. His 6’11”, 240-pound frame can only sustain the rigors of an NBA season for so long, and at age 32 Garnett could already be burning out.

It’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Garnett will be right back in the Celtics’ starting lineup come this November as the pivotal 2009-10 season kicks off. What also commences at this point will be Garnett’s three-year, $60 million extension. With his age, injuries and missed games on the rise, the Celtics will need to be even more careful with Garnett throughout the season in order to avoid another 2009-like disaster.

Garnett’s minutes will need to be monitored even more closely than in his first two seasons as a Celtic. He averaged 32.8 and 32.2 minutes in his first two seasons, respectfully. That number may now need to dip below 30 for the first time since Garnett’s rookie season in 1995-96 to keep his legs and knees fresh and 100 percent for the postseason, which even with Garnett out they should plausibly reach again.

A positive in the Garnett situation is that Glen “Big Baby” Davis really stepped up his game in the postseason, and showed his ability as a future starting power forward in the NBA. He will likely receive a bigger workload than the 21.5 minutes per game her averaged this season, and it would come as little surprise if he and Garnett split their minutes down the middle from now on.

The Celtics were very impressive during the regular season- perhaps more than they got credit for- going 62-20 despite missing Garnett for 20 games. But in the postseason, where their opponents got better and took their games to another level, the Celtics struggled. Almost every game was a battle, and the defense often looked disorganized.

Now the Celtics need to start thinking about the future. Garnett will likely be around for at least two-and-a-half of the three years of his extension, and potentially could become an albatross by then. Ray Allen will likely enter the epic free agent class of 2010, where someone may be willing to dish out a five-year deal to get him. The Celtics, however, like aren’t one of those teams.

Paul Pierce will be the final domino to fall in the big three’s departure from Boston, but he is by far the most likely to stay with the team for the remainder of his career. As the third-leading scorer in the history of the franchise- putting him behind only John Havlicek and Larry Bird- it’s only right that Pierce would never don another jersey in his career. In this age of free agency, athletes that stay with one team throughout their career are only getting more and more rare.

Pierce has a legitimate shot to pass Bird and possibly Havlicek if he stays with the Celtics for the rest of his career, so since he’s won a championship and will see his #34 raised to the rafters one day, why not make him a Celtic for life?

The Celtics will need to be patient with Pierce, but not too patient. There’s no doubt that Pierce has an undying love for this team, its fans and the City of Boston. But with his last chance to cash in coming in two years, what reason is there to believe that Pierce wouldn’t at least consider a lucrative offer to play near his roots on the West coast, say for the Clippers, Warriors or even-gulp-the Lakers???

For the next three years, deciding what to do with the big three will be the biggest task to manage for Ainge and his front office. But what also needs to be considered before it’s too late is what to do with their young stars, who have already blossomed into at least above-average NBA players. The aforementioned Davis averaged 15.8 points in 14 postseason games, including five games of over 20 points scored and a game-winning shot at the buzzer of game four against the Magic.

Kendrick Perkins is also developing into a reliable-enough scorer in the paint area, averaging 11.9 points on 57 percent shooting, as well as a great rebounder. He still fouls too much, but he is still young and developing, and could eventually become an excellent drawer of defensive fouls. At the very least, Perkins figures to average double-digit rebounds as he enters his prime, and could even develop into a Marcus Camby-type when he reaches his peak. It’s hard to believe this kid is still only 24 and has been in the league six years.

Despite Davis and Perkins’ accelerated maturity, the biggest rising star on the Celtics is undoubtedly Rajon Rondo. The 23-year-old, fleet-footed, deft-handed point guard was absolutely spectacular in the postseason this year, averaging a triple-double (16.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists) and giving the sports world notice that he belongs in the discussion of the league’s very best point guards.

Rondo still doesn’t have the shooting ability of a Deron Williams or Chris Paul, but he is a high-percentage scorer who can drive to the hoop with the best of them, and once Jason Kidd is done could take over as the very best rebounding point guard in the league. His long arms and enormous hands give him the ability to move the basketball with efficiency and deception, and his quick feet make him a dangerous target at any spot on the floor.

Personally, I think it’s realistic for Rondo to average something like 17 points, six rebounds and nine or ten assists per game in his prime. And it also can’t be stressed enough that he is one of the most reliable defensive point guards in the game. Celtics fans must hope that Ainge does not forget about locking this young start up with a long-term contract before another team makes him an offer he can’t refuse.

In June 2007, the window of opportunity of Celtics championships was closed, dirty and dusty, and the locks had gathered plenty of rust. But in just one year, Ainge cleaned the window, removed the rust and opened it as wide as he could as the culture of the Celtics in Boston completely changed. They took on a life energy that had not been seen since the teams of the late-80s. And like those teams, they delivered a championship. They took home a title while the window was at its most open.

But now that window is starting to close. The rust is starting to recollect itself. Aging stars are starting to break down. And worst of all, LeBron James is entering his prime. Yes, he’s entering it. He’s not there yet. But neither are Rondo, Perkins or Davis. At this turbulent and uncertain cross-road for the Celtics, it’s ultimately most important that the young stars stay around long enough, and that the big three are healthy enough, to keep this window open for several more years.