Zack Greinke First in Majors To Six Wins After Complete Game Shutout

Kansas City Royals ace Zack Greinke is mowing major leaguers down like no other right now, and the sports world is slowly catching on to this young superstar. Greinke struck out ten Chicago White Sox in a complete game shutout- his second of the season- in the Royals’ 3-0 victory Monday night.

Still only 25, Greinke is finally looking like the Cy Young contender he was thought to be way back when his career started. While other top-tier starters, such as Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels and C.C. Sabathia have either struggled or suffered injuries, Greinke has flourished, taking the title of “Best Pitcher in Baseball” away from them…At least for now.

Greinke allowed six hits and walked none in the shutout, all while throwing only 104 pitches, a remarkable feat for a complete game with double-digit strikeouts.

“It doesn’t surprise me what he’s doing right now at all,” White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said, “because he’s that good. He’s been good for a long time. Now he believes in himself.

“To me, he’s the best in the league right now.”

Not many would argue that right now. Greinke is now 6-0 on the season, and his 54 strikeouts and 0.40 ERA are the best in the major leagues. Perhaps we should have taken more notice last season, when he put together a 13-10 record for a last-place team with a 3.47 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 202 innings. This season is already putting that one to shame.

It feels like Greinke has been around forever, and he’s had to go through a lot of issues to get where he is now. Through the problems with social anxiety that he has overcome, Greinke is experiencing a triumph of major proportions. But ask him, and he will tell you he’s not the best pitcher in baseball- yet.

“No, you’ve got to do it for at least three years,” Greinke told Dick Kaegel of MLB.com. “That’s my thing — three years and you can put your name on stuff like that.”

Whether or not he’d agree with it, the way Greinke is pitching right now, he may have already reached his goal in year one.

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Will King Felix Ascend to His Throne in 2009?

On Monday I predicted Roy Halladay to win the Cy Young Award this season, and declared his biggest competition to be C.C. Sabathia. But those two are safe bets to win or compete for the award. The most potentially profitable bet could be the man in the picture below, Felix Hernandez of Seattle.

Felix Hernandez dominated for Venezuela in the WBC, and could dominate the major leagues in 2009.

The Mariners were just awful last season, finishing 61-101 and dead last in the American League. Their trade for Erik Bedard has so far been a disaster, but they did not panic by letting him loose when they could have. They have shipped away a lot of young talent in the process, but kept the man they call King Felix. He does still have plenty of room for improvement. But he will turn 23 on April 8, making him one of the best young pitchers in the game. It may not be long before he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, period.

Some believe his big breakthrough could come as early as this season. While his walks took a jump in 2008, his ERA went down for the third consecutive season and he topped 200 innings for the first time in his career with no major injury issues. The only problem with Hernandez at this point is maximizing his command. He walked 3 or more batters in 17 of his 31 starts in 2008, and had his third straight season of a WHIP of at least 1.34. He was a bit of a victim of bad luck, as batters hit .323 on balls in play against him, well-above the major league average. If that settles closer to the league average- and if he cuts his walks in half- get ready for a huge step forward for Hernandez. The fact that he dominated for Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic is a sign he may be poised to take that step.

The Mariners’ marketing department knows how good King Felix already is. They know that in this economy and with this team they’ll need to market him as best as they can to put asses in the seats. This amusing new commercial features him and some unfortunate Colorado Rockies.

Baseball Predictions: 2009 Awards

It’s always fun to prognosticate what one thinks will happen over the course of a season, in any sport. But baseball places more emphasis on awards than any other major sport, and no sports’ awards are given more credit and more weight when deciding a player’s Hall of Fame fate. It’s the only sport that takes a whole day to announce the news of who won each individual award, after the season is completely over. I will now give my official predictions for the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in each league.

American League MVP: Evan Longoria, Rays

The young budding star now has a full season in the middle of the Rays’ lineup.  In just 448 at-bats in 2008, Longoria hit 27 home runs and drove in 85 runs.  He should get closer to 600 this year, which means 30-35 home runs and over 100 RBI is highly likely.  He may never be a career .300 hitter due to his propensity for striking out (122 in 122 games last year), but the slugging potential is for real.  He is also already good enough to win a gold glove at 3B, with perhaps only Seattle’s Adrian Beltre standing in his way of doing just that this season.  But since gold gloves usually tend to gravitate toward better hitters, I say Longoria takes his first Gold Glove and MVP this season.  The only thing going against him is if teammates B.J. Upton and/or Carl Crawford also have outstanding seasons, in which case he could lose votes to splitting.  But this kid is a stud and should be for a very long time.

National League MVP: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins

The Marlins are my #1 pick for surprise teams this year, and by surprise I mean NL East champions.  Despite what the Mets have done to upgrade their bullpen, the Braves to upgrade their rotation and the looming presence of the defending-champion Phillies, the Marlins have the best collection of young, big-upside talent in the division and call it a hunch if you want, but I think this is the year most of that talent emerges.  Ramirez is still only 25 and just had his first 30-30 season in 2008.  With his move to third in the lineup, he could approach 40 home runs and he still has the talent for 20-30 steals.  The .297 batting average in 2008 was actually an anomaly; with fewer prolonged slumps this season he should easily hit well over .300 again.  If the Marlins win as many games as I believe they will, this will be Ramirez’ true coming-out party.  I am very much looking forward to seeing this kid perform in the postseason.

American League Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters, Orioles

Say hello to the 2009 version of Evan Longoria. To push back his free agency clock, the Orioles are going to wait until June to bring this blue-chipper up to the big leagues, and he’s expected to make a big impact right away. David Price might have something to say about the rookie of the year award as well, but if Wieters hits over .300 and close to the 31 home runs he’s been projected for from PECOTA, he’ll win in a landslide. He’s a 6’5″ switch-hitting catcher who has drawn comparisons to Mark Teixeira. And he’s also projected to be an above-average catcher at major league level. The anticipation of seeing this kid step to the plate is killing me. He’s being described as a Hall of Fame talent before he even plays a single major league game! What else needs to be said?

National League Rookie of the Year: Tommy Hanson, Braves

This kid is another young stud just waiting to get his first taste of major-league action.  He boasts mid-90s heat a hard curve and an improving changeup to go with poise, command and a strong pitcher’s build. He may not be an ace this season, but he will certainly make his presence felt as soon as he is called up.  That call-up I speak of is likely not until June, but if the Braves struggle early do not be surprsed if they bring this kid up and immediately insert him into the rotation.  Some have predicted him as a future No. 2 starter but I think he’s being sold short.  The baseball world will know who he is come this summer.

American League Cy Young Winner: Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

This year, he probably won’t have Cliff Lee to worry about. Halladay understandably finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2008, but produced a new career high of 206 strikeouts and the best ERA (2.78) and WHIP (1.05) of any of his seasons over 30 starts. He also won 20 games for the first time since 2003, his first Cy Young season. And he did it while pitching in the AL East! His strikeouts are likely going to drop a bit, but he’ll induce plenty of groundballs for arguably the league’s best defense to gobble up. His biggest competition has to be new Yankee C.C. Sabathia, but Halladay at this point should be more reliable to pack on a huge innings load than the hulking Sabathia. Also, are Felix Hernandez or Jon Lester or Francisco Liriano ready to take their games to another level? Are Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard or Justin Verlander going to bounce back from sub-par seasons? This race is always loaded at the beginning of the season, but by the end it will be Halladay standing all 6’6″ tall above the rest.

National League Cy Young Winner: Cole Hamels, Phillies

While there is also some serious competition out in the National League, it’s time for Hamels to step his win total up to 20.  He already has a World Series ring and MVP award to go along with it, and he pitched like a true ace throughout the 2008 playoffs.  His spring training elbow flare-up was not serious, and he should be at full strength very soon.  Hamels is still only 25, which makes him such an intriguing pitcher to watch.  Considering his age, he ought to have room for improvement upon his 3.09 ERA and 1.09 WHIP from last season.  From his debut in 2006 through 2008, his ERA and WHIP have gone down, his walks have remained relatively the same and his strikeouts have gone up each season.  His spotty injury is a bit disconcerting, but assuming a reasonable level of health- say, 26-28 starts- he may have enough to win  at least 17-18 games.  The Phillies may not repeat as World Series or even division champions, but I see a league leader in wins and ERA in Hamels this season, and that translates to a Cy.  The competition is also very stiff, including 2008 winner Tim Lincecum, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren, and plenty of breakout candidates.

Curt Schilling: Hall of Famer

Yes, Curt Schilling deserves a spot in Cooperstown. Jayson Stark agrees that we’ve witnessed greatness from him. Rob Neyer says “Of course” he’s a Hall of Famer. Now that he’s officially announced his retirement on 38 Pitches, it’s time for the debate to really begin. Whether or not you like the guy or agree with his opinions, there’s no denying the impact he had as a pitcher on every team he played for. While he may have to wait five, ten or maybe even all 20 years, Schilling deserves the 75% vote it takes to get in.

Detractors will point to his relatively modest 216 career wins as a reason for him not to be inducted, but they will eventually realize that wins is becoming less and less of a barometer of Major League success. For some time, 300 wins has been the benchmark for pitchers to punch their ticket to Cooperstown. Randy Johnson will win his 300th game this season barring a serious injury, and he may be the last player to ever achieve that total. In an era of deep bullpens and five-or-six-man rotations, 300 is becoming a nearly impossible number to reach.

The way I see it, if this gets into Cooperstown:

Then the man who wore it ought to make it in as well.  I think Schilling accomplished enough over his career to warrant a gold plaque with his face on it.  He may ultimately be most famous for the Bloody Sock game against the Yankees, but he should also be remembered for his 11-2 career postseason record that included an MVP performance in the 2001 World Series, over 3,000 career strikeouts, and a competitiveness and determination on the mound to deliver his team to the promised land, no matter his condition.

Schilling’s 216 wins will look better as his time on the ballot goes on and the Baseball Writers of America take more time to think about giving him their vote. Basically, it’s because Schilling took until his 30s to really become a great pitcher that his case for the Hall is being hurt. If he had figured it out five years earlier, we could be talking about a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer.

Let’s look at those 216 wins a little more closely, specifically his first Cy Young-caliber seasons. In 1997, Schilling was 17-11 for a Phillies team that finished 68-94, last in their division. While Schilling’s ERA was 2.97 that year, the team’s ERA was 4.87. And their best hitter that year was then-22-year-old Scott Rolen. While the Phillies won eight more games in 1998, the team once again had very little to offer in the rotation beyond Schilling, as he posted a 3.25 ERA for a team with a 4.64 team average. He totaled 619 strikeouts in 524 innings those two seasons. In his eight no-decisions in 1997, Schilling posted a 2.00 ERA with 65 strikeouts in 49 innings.

Simply put, a lot of wins were left on the table for Schilling during his Philadelphia tenure, and without him the Phillies could have been historically bad. But Schilling wasn’t a victim of circumstance in only that department. He also lost out on the Cy Young award at least three times, perhaps four in his career due to someone else having a historic season. Randy Johnson did it twice in Arizona, Pedro Martinez was lights-out in 1997 for Montreal and Johan Santana took his game to a whole new level in 2004. Schilling pitched like a Cy Young winner all those seasons, but never had a season where he was clearly on top. He faced some seriously stiff competition in his time and finished second in the voting in 2001, 2002 and 2004.

I think the most telling sign that Curt Schilling belongs in Cooperstown is his 3,116 career strikeouts, putting him 15th all-time. Only two other pitchers in the top 15 are not in the Hall of Fame, and one of them is a future first-ballot player: Pedro Martinez. The other is Bert Blyleven, who is on the ballot and could still get his due. Schilling amassed over 300 strikeouts three times in his career, and had 293 in 2001.

Schilling’s career WHIP is 1.14. While he did have his hiccups, the man dominated his starts when he was on, and was other-worldly in the postseason. Even if Schilling never makes it into the Hall, he will still have his three rings and know that he really earned them. But it would be severely unjust to deny this man a plaque. I think it will take about ten years on the ballot for him to get in, but he will. By that time, there will be only a handful of pitchers even approaching 200 career wins, making 216 that much more impressive. His strikeout totals and postseason numbers will also get better with age, and soon enough the BBWA will join Stark, Neyer, Buster Olney and Peter Gammons in giving him their vote. As a Red Sox fan, I can only hope…

Here’s a video courtesy of the Associated Press showing plenty of photos and highlights, and stating plenty of more facts to help his Hall of Fame case:

Other Curt Schilling Videos:

• Loses a No-Hitter with Two Outs in the 9th Inning Against Oakland on June 7, 2007
• Faces a then-25-year-old Ichiro Suzuki in Japan’s Osaka Dome November 11, 1998
• Amusing Baseball Tonight commercial about his bloody sock